This one has to go

This blog has always been more of a backup blog for when the server was down at my other blog. That is to say, I’ve been co-posting here and at http://www.porch-dog.com. Because I’ve recently started blogging at work in addition to trying to maintain my own personal blog and every spare minute is going to count.

If you’ve enjoyed anything you’ve read here, then by all means, check out the real site, bookmark it, subscribe to it, whatever. Obviously, I love having readers. I just can’t maintain both Porch Dogs.

Going Nucular

I’m off to see my beautiful girlfriend who is finishing her Spanish degree today by means of a 45 minute presentation to a Spanish tribunal. So I leave you with this tangentially political link (mutant insect paintings) brought to you via The Virginia Quarterly Review blog, the magazine version of which is one of the most exciting and relevant cultural journals on the market (in one man’s opinion).

A Message from Big “Anthony Burgess” Dog:

You’re all alone today, me e-droogies.

Will They Ever Learn?

If it isn’t one thing, it’s another.

Indiana News Roundup

I’m not sure what the critical catalyst here is but since the primaries moved into “the land of Indians” after the Pennsylvania primaries, our fields are alive with the sound of DAT recorders and whatever other noises reporters make in their secrete conclaves.

Last week NPR’s All Things Considered ran the story “Primary Not the Only Political Game in Indiana”about our convoluted path toward legitimate environmental stewardship.

This morning’s Morning Edition carried the story on white-nose syndrome, a fungal condition that might wipe out Indiana’s endangered brown bat (“Disease Deadly to Bats Spreads in Northeast U.S.”)

And Talking Points Memo is linking to this piece in Portfolio which features the antiquated accounting machinery in effect at the Indianapolis military finance center. This is the center that most Porch Dog readers will only know from 2001-era stories when we were rumored to be a “major terrorist target” because of said facility.

Of course there’s also our district 2 primary pride and joy Tony Zirkle who’s basically made a total ass of himself and Indiana by attending (and being a speaker at) a birthday party for Hitler. His excuse?–He’s a media whore and he’ll speak anywhere they invite him.

Awesome.

I’m sure there are just dozens more. Send us more worthless political races please. I like seeing my state in the national news for things other than bizarre murders and large plant explosions.

Indiana Race Part III…IV?

Professor Taylor at PoliBlog links to this story from the Congressional Quarterly which quite scientifically projects what I said last week and earlier this week: Indiana doesn’t matter.

Indiana offers 72 delegates that will be apportioned by the results of the voting. Forty-seven of those 72 are directly related to results in Indiana’s 9 congressional districts. Of those 47, CQ predicts Obama and Clinton will split them right down the freaking middle with Clinton earning 24 and Obama 23. I figure if CQ is wrong by a few thousand votes in every district the result may come back a surprising 24 for Obama and 23 Clinton–a major (MAJOR) upset for the “Comeback Kid” but still close enough for her to drag on her continued presence in this race.

Of the rest CQ says this:

The other 25 pledged delegates at stake — 16 “at-large” delegates and nine party leader and elected officials (PLEOs) — will be distributed in proportion to the statewide vote. The 16 at-large delegates will split 8-8 if the winner takes less than 53.1 percent of the vote. The statewide winner is guaranteed a 5-4 victory among the nine PLEOs; it would require 61.1 percent of the statewide vote for a 6-3 edge.

So the remaining delegates will be apportioned based on statewide totals, and of course, we know that race is close. Two local pollsters have it a deadheat (48/47) and (46/46). Survey USA has Clinton by 9 with Obama closing the gap. (I don’t know if any of those polls were done after Rev. Wright’s most recent ridiculousness and none of them are post-Obama’s speech from yesterday). At any rate I suspect that the statewide delegates will be split basically down the middle with a tiny edge to Clinton.

If she’s lucky she will tighten her 159 delegate deficit by two or three. She will widen her superdelegate lead here by another handful–which still leaves her behind in the popular vote, behind in the delegate vote, and behind in votes overall.

¿Puede Ganar en Indiana el Sr. Obama? [No lo sé.]

This question is so blindingly obvious I can’t believe I hadn’t thought of it on my own yet…nor have our local NPR affiliates. “The Latino vote” has been one of those bizarro story arcs for the whole campaign season and, like most northern states the recent wave of Latino immigration is a story on the tips of every tongue. The combination is the result of a natural fit. Get on it WFYI!

I have been saying that Obama’s populist jibber-jabber should appeal to Latin Americans who are not only accustomed to but seem to like politicians that cater to populist policies. But Clinton, probably because of something her husband did 15 years ago, seems to pull their vote anyway.

But Indiana, as I mentioned a few days ago, is a battleground state, sitting between Clinton-dominated Ohio and Obama-lovin’ Illinois. The demographics of the area show that its about 25% Latino, which should favor Obama getting the Latino vote there since East Chicago, Gary, Whiting, etc in the Lake County region (for those of you who are map-skillz deficient) is the part of the state that borders Chicago…Illinois….Obama’s home state. Their major news outlets are all Chicago-based. The name recognition for Obama in that region is particularly strong.

But if Clinton is able to rally the Latino vote here the same way she’s been able to elsewhere it could significantly undercut Obama’s lead in the delegate-heavy, urban northwest–an area that, without Latinos, would clearly favor him.

This is a particularly relevant threat for him since that region is steel mill-heavy too–if Pennsylvania taught us anything.

Obama should start putting soccer in his “I can play sports” repertoire.

I Suspect Daddy

What follows is not political at all, but sometimes you just have to comment on the more pervasive internetz events.

I’m neither warped, a paranoid reactionary, or guilt-riddled but I can tell you that I thought this post was perfect in its argument strategy.

People often forget that in artistic endeavor everything is intentional. Yes, there is no explicit nudity. Yes, there is Vanity Fair’s typical gray filter they use to convince us that their pictures are “artful.” Yes Miley’s hair is swept forward in an attractive and not-necessarily-erotic way. But she is naked and her nakedness is shielded to the viewer by means of a sheet. Why a sheet? Was a sheet the only prop that Vanity Fair had handy, or does the sheet represent something? What could a sheet represent? Well, it is quite obviously evocative of a bed…(that is, it evokes the image of a bed in our minds). What is the goal of placing Miley in a bed? Is it to conjure up images of sugar plum fairies? Innocent dreams? Daddy Billy Ray tucking her in at night to keep her safe? Because, I should probably remind you, she’s naked.

Why (why oh why?) is Miley naked and wrapped in a sheet in Vanity Fair? And the answer is two-fold: to sell more copies of Vanity Fair and to sell more of whatever Miley Cyrus does: songs, shows, concerts, posters, etc.

And…er…when you deliberately use erotic pictures of underage girls to sell products it is quite definitely–that is, by definition–child pornography…and kind of like child prostitution.

I guess.

I guess you could also argue that the picture is actually artful. Not just in the deliberate use of those strange white, gray, and red tones that Vanity Fair has been running into the ground over the last few years but also in terms of shading, tone, texture, line, etc. on the basis of which photography is judged. Since the picture has artistic merit, by a separate calculus, Miley and Vanity Fair are in the clear. But even artistically one cannot escape the blatantly sexual nature of the photo. The tussled hair, the sheet, the bright red lipstick…Miley isn’t just being treated like a whore by the Annie Liebovitz, she actually looks like a recently worked-over working girl.

What I like most about this photo shoot and the uproar it seems to be causing is that Miley’s dad, he of “Achy Breaky Heart” fame, King of the Mullets, was not only present, as Vanity Fair’s public statement claimed, but actually took part in the shoot. The pictures of the two together make them look like a romantic couple rather than father and daughter. Or rather, they look like both given her lusty countenance and his trailer park chic. It’s just flat incestuous from beginning to end. Most of the uproar is centered on pedophilia, which makes some sense, but really, I’m focusing on the more sinister taboo here.

Rev. Wright: Shut Up; Sen. McCain: Keep Talkin’

In-and-out blogging today so I can get back to my for-pay work–both topics meant to annihilate any lingering doubt that I might not be totally in the tank for Democrats in 2008 (It’s sometimes hard for me to forget that I once said good things about Senator Lugar.)

Reverend Wright
Reverent Wright knows better than I do which path will best serve his flock but here’s my opinion: If he really wants to promote social justice, if he really wants to help black people in American society, then helping Obama get elected is certainly as viable a plan–if not more viable–than him finding more ways to publicize his obviously antagonizing views.

Yes, I understand, he wants to antagonize; he wants to speak The Truth to The People–such is his obligation under the doctrine of his church. But part of being a good leader is understanding that there is a good time and a bad time for all things, a season, if you will…I read that somewhere. I’m not asking that he not say “God damn America,” I’m asking that he not say it right now. Is the second week of November just too far away? Honestly, one gets the feeling (and I am that one) that this is less about spreading the doctrine of black liberation theology and a lot more about collecting speaker’s fees–striking while the iron is hot and whatnot. If the love of God on Earth is made visible through the promotion of social justice then Wright will surely burn one day for flexing his vanity and working against the efforts of the larger movement.

The New DNC Anti-McCain ad:
Some thoughtful people have chimed in on McCain’s repeated admission that he doesn’t care if we stay in Iraq “for a 100 years” or “10,000.” To some, it seems that to continue to rag on McCain for his statements is purely and illegitimately to take them out of context. To others, like TPM’s Josh Marshall, these attackers are fully in the right because they are “using the senator’s own words.” The release of the new DNC ad has reignited this debate.

I had hoped to chime in on this myself before someone else made the proper defense but Marshall did it today. Basically it might be true that most of the attacks, to a very minor degree, take McCain’s statements out of context. He did say that he didn’t care if we were in Iraq for a 100 or 1,000 or 10,000 years. But he did not mean that we would be continuing the Iraq War for that long. What McCain meant was that we would occupy Iraq indefinitely under a similar arrangement as we have with Germany or Japan and boatloads of other nations, which, given the nature and success of those arrangements, is hardly a controversial policy.

The problem, as Marshall correctly points out is that:

…there’s little reason to believe our occupation of Iraq will ever be like that. We tried this in Lebanon; the French tried this in Algeria; the British even tried it in Iraq. Western countries have a very poor history garrisoning Muslim countries in the Middle East. Iraq isn’t like Germany or Japan, not simply because of the history of the country but because both countries accepted decades-long US deployments as a counterweight to threatening neighbors. The relevant point is that McCain believes American troops should stay in Iraq permanently. His pipe dream about Iraq turning into Germany doesn’t change that.

That’s the crux here, Iraq will continue to be a deadly experiment in imperialist overreach for years into the future and will likely never transform into anything else. So the fact that McCain really hopes that our 10,000-year occupation is a peaceful one is completely irrelevant. Marshall and I both love this elegant restatement of the point from the New Yorkers‘ Rick Hertzberg:

McCain wants to stay in Iraq until no more Americans are getting killed, no matter how long it takes and how many Americans get killed achieving that goal–that is, the goal of not getting any more Americans killed. And once that goal is achieved, we’ll stay.

So regardless of whether or not you believe that McCain meant that we would have a 100-year-long war in Iraq or not, his policy will result in one, and thus this ad and all others that accuse McCain of endorsing a 100-year war in Iraq are 100% justifiably and correct. The fact that he has deluded himself into believing that that is not the case makes him more deadly, not less. This is a case where the context hurts McCain rather than helping him. Out of context he is merely calling for 100 years of war with Iraq presumably in an effort to secure the safety of Americans. In context he’s strategically incompetent and dangerously naive about national security matters; and his incompetence and naivete will result in a 100 year long war. Vote for him at the peril of your sons and grandsons (and their kids, and their kids’ kids…at least.)

Indiana Race: Part II

I’m not going back on Thursday’s statement that the Indiana race doesn’t matter and that all the talk of its mattering “for the first time since 1968″ is based on a fundamental misunderstanding of why it doesn’t matter. Looking in the traditional place of Indiana’s race not mattering (the race is effectively over by the time it gets here) commentators are missing the fact that the race doesn’t matter for a completely different reason (Indiana will split the delegate vote and leave the race essentially unchanged–as have all previous races).

Of course this second “fact” is based on the assumption that Obama and Clinton will split the vote here. Luckily for me and my big mouth, a poll released on Friday had the two Dems in a statistical deadheat. That’s right, accounting for possible errors in the polling, Clinton and Obama are tied. Hell, even if we ignore the so-called “margin of error,” they’re tied. I mean a split of 47% to 48% (Clinton) is still going to split the delegates in half.

Barring the discovery that Obama has been in charge of a sex trade ring or an illegal Chinese immigrant import operation, I think we can all safely assume that we’ll be looking at the same landscape after Indiana as we were looking at before it. In geospatial terms, think of having run a mile through the Sahara. You know in your heart you’re a mile closer to getting out, but it looks identical. There you have it: 2008 Democratic Primary Season = Sahara Desert EcoChallenge.

However, the perception that this race matters has made the news a lot more interesting. Finally some politicians I know are being interviewed. Names of nearby folk are appearing on CNN and NPR. Local affiliates are getting in the game and you can tell they’ve been aching to ask some serious questions to some of the state’s movers and shakers. And because it now seems “worth it” to them to get on the radio and talk, they are.

And here are some of the things I learned or had re-enforced over the weekend:

Apparently the target marketing of the two campaigns is why I haven’t seen or heard any Clinton ads yet. Rural-based friends of friends haven’t seen any Obama ads.

Fundamentals really do matter. I had a friend who does not follow politics at all say to me over the weekend: I don’t know, with gas prices what they are and with the war, how can you vote Republican this time? It’s nice to have the theory supported by The People–even if it was only one of them.

Evan Bayh and Dan Parker (Indiana’s very popular Democratic ([unior] senator and the head of the state Democratic Party respectively) are both throwing their lot in with Clinton and despite having fished around for a good argument why, I haven’t heard one. Bayh, presumably, is angling for a possible VP slot, having been shortlisted by several of the commentariat. Parker is just out of touch with the modern Democratic party both in his state and nationally. I assume that any superdelegate voting for Clinton is in exactly the same situation: they are either professionally invested in a Clinton candidacy or they’re just simply in love with the old school, triangulating, not-quite-Democratic Clinton wing of the party. Or, to Parker’s potential credit, he is hoping to keep Indiana’s limping Democratic Party lined up behind Bayh. A decision I wouldn’t support but at least would understand.

I read recently an op-ed where some blowhard know-it-all wrongly asserted that we should stop using the “derogatory” and “biased” term superdelegate on the basis that it was not only slanted but newly coined in this suddenly divisive political environment. Not only was he wrong that the term was newly coined, but if it is derogatory and biased then someone should tell Dan Parker to stop calling himself a “superdelegage” as he did last night on WIBC.

Obama’s recent interview appearances are starting to show a little wear and tear. He seems less “above the fray,” less polished, and just generally reduced a little bit. Part of the problem may be that his campaign seems to have some of its direction. He desperately wants to stop the Democratic in-fighting and turn his attention to McCain, who, literally everyday is making it known what a frightening prospect his presidency is but skips by unscathed for his transgresses. But Obama’s decision comes at the same time that Clinton has ramped up her attacks leaving Obama’s team working at cross purposes.

Every policy wonk, Hell–for that matter–any person following this race, wants and needs for these Lincoln-Douglas style debates to happen. Honestly both Obama and Clinton need these moderator-less free-for-alls in order to emphasize their policy differences if either of them is to take a decisive lead in the final primary contests. Unfortunately Obama needs them less and he has decided to run with this relative gains model in his rejection of Clinton’s offer. At this stage Obama seems to have rejected completely his uplifting, hope-oriented, new politics in favor of grinding out the final days. He is fully aware at this point that Clinton can’t win the popular or superdelegate lead and as long as he lays low he goes into the National Convention with both in his favor. Unless Clinton or Bush or McCain does something egregious I’m not expecting much more from him between now and the first week of June when the final primaries are held. At this stage he can reduce damage and save money by letting the 50/50 momentum that has marked this campaign do its thing. Mostly.

Personally I think Obama should go balls out against McCain. Spend a few weeks highlighting every policy gaffe that McCain is making, unleash the type of attacks he would use in the fall. I think this, more than anything else will help move a lot of Democrats behind him. 1) It makes him look more like the prospective nominee he is; 2) not wanting John McCain to be president is something that all Democrats can agree on and 3) there a lot of undecided and swing voters out there who might not vote in a Democratic primary (either because they are undecided or because they’re thinking they’re voting for McCain). Obama should help them decide to vote for him. While Obama still looks good going into the convention he would look better with a few late wins under his belt.

Oh! And there are 150,000 new Democratic voters in Indiana for this primary. This Get Out the Vote fervor is happening all over the country and it should produce even higher numbers as we approach November. I haven’t looked at the numbers to know if 150,000 new voters would be enough to give this, or any state, to a Democrat (based on 2000 or 2004 returns). I doubt it, but it could mean that if McCain were elected he might become so with even less of the popular vote than Bush got in 2000–a Pyhrric victory to be sure but a victory nevertheless.